053 suggest that a more successful pass rush will help your defense, but not by much. We see from the first chart that there is a small, weak correlation between a better pass defense and a winning pass rush. Both of these depict a pretty holistic view of how well the competing team is passing the football. These two data points combined can give us a great idea of how good a team is in the trenches, because it tells us how often their men shed blocks, and how often they can take the quarterback down after they do so.įor measuring overall pass defense success, I used average opponent QBR, which tells us how efficient their opponent’s passing attack was, and net yards per attempt, which shows the average number of yards allowed by a team when their opponent intends to pass. The metrics I have used to measure pass rush success are pass rush win rate, which measures how often a lineman is able to beat his block in under 2.5 seconds, and sack percentage, which is how often a passing play results in a sack. To do this, I have constructed two scatterplots. To find out how much pass rush matters to the overall pass defense, we can attempt to find the correlation between how good a pass rush is and how successful the defense is at stopping an air attack. This can undoubtedly alter plays, but how crucial is a good pass rush? Defensive linemen will rush the quarterback in an attempt to pressure or sack him, preventing an accurate throw from ever getting to their receiver. But just how important are these players? The first step of answering a question like this one is how they affect the most important facet of football: the passing game. This sentiment is reaffirmed when the national public sees the frontrunners for Defensive Player of the Year, who are big linemen and edge rushers like Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett, and T.J. They emphasize this as a key predictor of which way a game will swing. Turn on any game of professional football today and you are virtually guaranteed to hear the announcers discuss the “battle of the trenches”, referring to all the action around the line of scrimmage. While many (including the MVP voters) will agree that the quarterback is the most important position, what comes next? And what is the financial makeup of the perfect team? To begin to answer this question, we can analyze the effect of the pass rush and the pass coverage on stopping the most important part of an offense. Meanwhile, Miami Dolphins GM Chris Grier used his draft capital to build a great secondary, which has led to the Dolphins’ remarkable 2020 turnaround. Someone like Bears GM Ryan Pace has made enemies out of his Chicago fanbase by trading away a plethora of draft picks for elite pass rusher Khalil Mack, leaving his team stranded in mediocrity, after missing on QB Mitch Trubisky. It is undoubtedly necessary to have positional priorities straight for GMs, as they operate under a hard cap. A hot topic in today’s NFL is the importance of each individual position.
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